As PC sales stall, Apple projected to sell 69M iPads in 2012
Analyst Rob Cihra with Evercore Partners revealed in a note to investors on Monday that he has cut his projected PC sales for the remainder of the year. He sees traditional computer sales dropping 4 percent year over year in the third quarter of calendar 2012, while overall PC growth for the year will be flat with 2011.
Cihra believes sales of tablets like Apple's iPad are responsible for "at least half" of the PC market's current decline. He noted that consumer PCs have struggled ever quarter since they topped out in the third quarter of 2010, which is just one quarter after Apple launched the first-generation iPad.
His projection comes only days after the latest estimates show PC shipments dropped 0.1 percent worldwide and 5.7 percent in the U.S. in the June quarter. One of the few bright spots in the market was Apple, which saw its domestic Mac sales grow 4.3 percent.
While Cihra believes PCs will continue to struggle going forward, even with the launch of Microsoft's new Windows 8 operating system, he has big expectations for the iPad. His forecast calls for Apple to sell 69 million iPads in calendar year 2012, taking more than 60 percent of the market, even in the face of competition from Microsoft's Surface tablets and Google's Nexus 7.
For the just-concluded June quarter, Cihra sees Apple having sold 16.5 million iPads, which would represent 78 percent year-over-year growth. That's slightly higher than the 16 million iPads Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes Apple sold, while lower than the 20-million-unit projection from Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company.
Cihra believes that a quarter of tablet purchases are truly direct replacements for PCs, while another quarter are "effectively" replacing PCs, as users delay purchasing a new computer by getting an iPad or another tablet.
"PCs now need to compete both directly/functionally and more so indirectly (for discretionary spend/mindshare) against 'thin client' architectures/ecosystems," Cihra wrote in his note to investors on Monday.
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To provide a little context, this story began back when the CEO announced that tablets (the iPad) were cannibalizing notebook sales. After a small media storm and some revisionist history, that statement was watered down to the iPad only slightly effecting netbook sales. It was obvious to everyone that his first statement was true, but he had to backtrack due to backlash from companies like HP. Shortly, thereafter, HP rushed out the aborted TouchPad. Eventually, it was clear that the iPad was starting to eat into traditional laptop sales. Apple was actually the first to publicly acknowledge this, while everyone else was still trying to do damage control. After a few bad quarters, PC makers started admitting, on the record, that the iPad was effecting their mobile business. That was followed by a rush to KIRF the MBA, only to discover that people didn't want an ultra book; they wanted a Macbook Air. Now, it is becoming clear that the iPad is starting to cannibalize traditional PC sales, full stop! Isn't history fun?
It's funny how the so-called tech nerds refuse to accept reality. They move from one topic to another hoping to find the magic bullet that will finally kill Apple. The latest argument is how a tablet running full Windows will decimate the iPad in business. The netbooks were to be the magic bullet, then the ultrabooks, then the Fire and now the Nexus 7. Just jump from one Apple killer to the next hoping against hope. It really is all about Apple with these people isn't it.
If AAPL's financial results are once again spectacular, as expected, we'll start hearing the "wait till such-and-such comes out" arguments almost immediately.
Im not sure 'PC Growth Trendline' is the correct wording there!
[quote name="lkrupp" url="/t/151293/as-pc-sales-stall-apple-projected-to-sell-69m-ipads-in-2012#post_2147597"]It's funny how the so-called tech nerds refuse to accept reality. [/quote] Because they like to play with their PCs. Pulling cards out of boxes, re-wiring, buying new cards to fit into slots. "Upgrading" so they can boast about an extra 5fps in the latest shooter. Comparing the latest Nvidia card to the latest ATI card, with accompanying squeals of excitement over the new anti-aliasing options. Apple threatens tech nerds' play-time and spec chest-thumping.
It's funny how the so-called tech nerds refuse to accept reality. They move from one topic to another hoping to find the magic bullet that will finally kill Apple. The latest argument is how a tablet running full Windows will decimate the iPad in business. The netbooks were to be the magic bullet, then the ultrabooks, then the Fire and now the Nexus 7. Just jump from one Apple killer to the next hoping against hope. It really is all about Apple with these people isn't it.
If AAPL's financial results are once again spectacular, as expected, we'll start hearing the "wait till such-and-such comes out" arguments almost immediately.
Ice Cream Sandwich/Jellybean has surpassed IOS.
WP8 Apollo is also going to do very well.
Both are just as fluid, yet more advanced, modern and intuitive than IOS is in it's current state.