76% of iPhone owners plan to use Apple's iCloud, 30% interested in iTunes Match
Mike Abramsky, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, revealed on Monday the results of a new proprietary survey of 1,500 respondents conducted between June 7 and 14. The poll found that 76 percent of iPhone users said they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to use Apple's iCloud service, which would amount to 150 million users.
If Apple were to have 150 million iCloud users, it would be competing with services like Google's Gmail, at 200 million users, Yahoo, with 300 million registered users, and Twitter, also at 300 million.
iCloud was unveiled earlier this month at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. The free service will become available this fall, replacing Apple's existing MobileMe product.
The survey also found 73 percent of iPhone users indicated they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to use iMessage, Apple's new proprietary chat service, similar to Research in Motion's BlackBerry Messenger. Abramsky said the results show Apple is likely to enhance the loyalty of existing iPhone users, as well as its 60-million-plus iPod touch users.
"Because it stores user data, iCloud, along with iTunes is expected to enhance loyalty and stickiness of Apple's customers, helping defend against threats from Android, helping grow a defensible install base of users who continually upgrade to next generation Macs, iPhones, iPads, and iPods," Abramsky wrote.
In addition, the survey also found that 30 percent of iPhone users said they are either "very" or "somewhat" likely to spend $24.99 on the new iTunes Match service. Through iTunes Match, Apple will scan a user's library of songs, including those ripped from their own CDs, and match the tracks up with the library of 18 million songs available through iTunes, even upgrading them to high-quality 256Kbps AAC audio files.
Abramsky said the survey suggests that Apple could earn a "nominal" $1.5 billion per year in revenue, or 1 percent of annual revenue. Assuming that the gross margins associated with iTunes Match are around 10 percent, which is in line with iTunes content sales, he would also expect the service to have a nominal impact on Apple's earnings per share.
29 Comments
A new survey of iPhone users indicates that Apple's iCloud service could gain 150 million users, while nearly as many are also interested in using iMessage.
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iCloud was unveiled earlier this month at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. The free service will become available this fall, replacing Apple's existing MobileMe product.
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I am curious about the old .Mac addresses and resumption of using them under iCloud. There are several threads at Apple support where posters (who aren't indicated to be Apple employees) say that the old e-mail addresses are gone and their current use as an Apple ID is just a textual placeholder. There are also several threads that say that .Mac and MobileMe addresses do come forward to iCloud. My specific question is can I resume using a .Mac address (that I initially created back in the iTools days [11 years ago] that I never converted over to the pay system when Apple changed their terms)?
I get the impression that most of the 13% who say they won't use it...don't even understand what it is.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
Adoption rate won't matter because iCloud is just a part of initial device setup and configuration. If the platform is truly everything it's supposed to be, convergence is inevitabe.
Then count me in with the 76% majority as well as the 30% minority.
One of the best things about the Apple ecosphere is that, for the most part, there is this great integration between all the pieces and parts. The morning that the 3GS iPhone went on sale, all my MobileMe contacts and calendars were available on my new iPhone, before I even left the AT&T store. I think once most people figure that out about iTunes Match, my guess is that it'll have a lot more than 30% penetration amongst iPhone/iTouch/iPad users.
I am curious about the old .Mac addresses and resumption of using them under iCloud. There are several threads at Apple support where posters (who aren't indicated to be Apple employees) say that the old e-mail addresses are gone and their current use as an Apple ID is just a textual placeholder. There are also several threads that say that .Mac and MobileMe addresses do come forward to iCloud. My specific question is can I resume using a .Mac address (that I initially created back in the iTools days [11 years ago] that I never converted over to the pay system when Apple changed their terms)?
I seriously doubt that @mac.com address that have not been used since the Dot Mac days will be re-instated. There is a possibility that @mac.com address that have been kept active through MobleMe may continue to be used with iCloud. At this point Apple hasn't said for sure either way, but I don't see why currently used @mac.com addresses wouldn't be supported with iCloud.