Strong June iPhone sales expected despite no next-gen model from Apple
Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities visited this week with contacts in Taipei and attended the Computex Show. His sources have indicated that shipments of the iPhone 4 to Apple are flat quarter over quarter, a number better than the 15 percent reduction he had been expecting.
If iPhone shipments for the June quarter do hold steady from the 18.65 million the company sold in the March quarter, that number would be significantly higher than the 8.4 million iPhones Apple sold in the June quarter of 2010. Last year's three-month frame included the launch of the iPhone 4, which was the most successful product launch in Apple's history.
"Essentially, we are not seeing the typical long pause in demand that generally occurs ahead of the introduction of a next-generation iPhone that historically has occurred in June/July," White wrote.
He also received word that initial production will begin at certain iPhone component suppliers in July, with volume production of an anticipated next-generation iPhone beginning in August. That would put the so-called "iPhone 5" on track for a September launch, as has been previously rumored.
Apple typically introduces new iPhone hardware at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. But this year, a number of rumors, along with Apple itself setting the stage for a software-centric event, have indicated that this year's show will not feature the introduction of a new iPhone.
Helping Apple's iPhone 4 sales in the June quarter, even as the presumed launch of a new handset looms in the coming months, has been the launch of the white iPhone 4. White noted that the model has been "especially popular" in Asia, and is sold out in Taipei.
Finally, sources in the supply chain also reiterated to White that the explosion that killed two workers at a Foxconn production plant in Chengdu, China, last month is not expected to have a significant impact on iPad 2 production. Sources reportedly said that the facility had been held back by yield issues on certain outside components, and the facility may not have reached the "optimal utilization rate."
"Therefore, the explosion in Chengdu may result in more of an equilibrium situation with certain component vendors, rather than a shortage situation," he said. "Netting this all out, we believe the production of iPad 2 will be supply constrained by the June quarter; however, we are not prepared to place the bulk of the blame on the Chengdu operation."
24 Comments
my mother in law just bought one.
Android growth has reportedly stopped, (as a percentage of the market, not units) and iphones are on pace for level to growth despite impending new models? Interesting....
What part of this is the white phone, and what part is the slow kick over to new carriers like Verizon and the other couple of new carrier additions over the last 5-6 months? Does the iPhone finally have a large enough market to blunt the product cycle dip and climb a little or is the white iPhone the primary driver here?
Many a fan-droid said said, a year ago, that the next two years would be telling. They may be right. Android might only be a 30% system....
The people who buy now don't care what iPhone they have OR don't have a friend that is willing to slap them in the head.
my mother in law just bought one.
Anecdotally, I have seen several people from work buying their first iPhone this quarter. Definitely has more to do with availability on Verizon, though several did pick up the white.
I counseled two to wait for the next version in the fall and both went ahead and bought anyway. They felt that even the "old" version of the phone would be so much better than what they had. Now, every single one of these new adopters is ecstatic about their iPhone... It is an amazing thing!
My friend has a dying iPhone 2G (actually, his *is* dead, he's using MY iPhone 2G). He knows there's no new model coming out next week, but we're both hoping that they cut the price or something. He desperately needs a new phone. He was planning on holding out for the 5, but since we're looking at September for that and the one he's using is falling apart, he has to pull the trigger soon. They're selling iPhone 4 refurbs (16GB) for $100 now at AT&T. He's anxious...