Impact of tablets to drag PC unit growth down to 1%
Morgan Stanley released data from its latest AlphaWise global consumer survey on Thursday and found that tablet demand and PC cannibalization rates are higher than previously estimated.
PC unit growth is now expected to atrophy to one percent over the 2012 and 2013 calendar years. This new metric is a substantial decrease to the firm's most recent estimates that put growth for the sector at 2 percent and 5 percent for 2012 and 2013, respectively; a slightly more conservative forecast than IDC's 5 percent and 9.5 percent for the same period.
Analyst Katy Huberty expects the tablet market to grossly outperform the firm's most recent estimates and hit shipments of 133 million in 2012 and 216 million in 2013, a 40 percent and 89 percent increase to the previous forecast. Huberty notes that 41 percent of new tablet purchases will either replace or delay PC purchases, a 14 percent jump from what was expected.
Adding to the acceleration of tablet demand, which inversely affects PC sales, is a slow uptake of Windows computers as consumers await the Fall launch of Windows 8. With big-box retailers less likely to hold large inventories, PC unit growth is expected to decelerate for the next two quarters followed by a rebound by the end of 2012.
Source: Morgan Stanley
While Apple may be a victim of its own success with the huge popularity of the iPad, the sheer number of tablets coming out of Cupertino will likely offset the cannibalization of Mac sales. Huberty sees AAPL earnings per share to rise in 2013 to $61.50 with a price target of $738.
23 Comments
"People don't want a big iPod touch."
"People don't want a big iPod touch."
The title is misleading. It's not a tablet market, it's an iPad market.
Queue the fandroids that will spin this to include junk Android tablets.
Saw this coming when Steve sat down in that easy-chair and demo'd the iPad in January 2010.
Chairs flew in Redmond that day. OEMs glanced around in worry and confusion. Scott Forstall and Jony Ive almost spilled their chai lattés in laughter.
[quote name="sflocal" url="/t/150410/impact-of-tablets-to-drag-pc-unit-growth-down-to-1#post_2119021"] The title is misleading. It's not a tablet market, it's an iPad market. [/quote] That's absolutely not true.-no matter how often it is repeated. There is a tablet market - as evidenced by the fact that there are plenty of competitors, some of which have sold millions of units. Most estimates say that competitors currently have 30-40% of the market. That said, two things to consider: 1. Huberty has possibly the worst record in her 'predictions' of Apple's results. She's never right. 2. Her numbers are highly questionable even at first glance. She is predicting that Apple will have only 52% of the market this year and 45% next year. That's far too low (unless she's counting everything under the sun including ereaders and gps systems).
If I were Balmer and realized that of the 133 million tablets sold this year, few, if any, will make Microsoft any money... I'd be throwing up in a wastebasket.
Two major explosions of products and Micrososft can only stand on the sidelines and holler, "Wait 'till next year."