By Slash Lane

Published: 10:00 AM EST

Investment bank Piper Jaffray said Friday it now believes there is as an 85 percent likelihood that Apple at the upcoming Macworld Expo in January will finally take the wraps off its long-rumored ultra-portable MacBook.

"As Macworld approaches, reports of an ultraportable MacBook are following patterns of previously expected products that eventually materialized," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "We believe these reports are legitimate and continue to expect Apple to introduce a MacBook with a significantly smaller form factor."

Earlier this month, AppleInsider cited well-respected sources who, following nearly two years of internal development on Apple's part, are finally pinning the thin and lightweight 13-inch sub-notebook for an unveiling on January 15, 2008 as part of the company's annual Macworld Expo announcements.

Munster, who dubbed the ultra-portable MacBook his "hot topic of the month," had previously estimated that there was a 75 percent chance the notebook would make an appearance at the conference.

Meanwhile, the analyst also used his note to clients on Friday to offer a roundup of recent ongoings with Apple's overseas iPhone launches, noting that Cupertino-based company's three carrier partners in the Europe each expect to sell about 100,000 iPhones by the end of the year.

"Collectively, we were expecting the European iPhone launches to add 250,000 to December iPhone sales, but if Apple sells 100,000+ iPhones in the UK, Germany and France, there would likely be upside to our iPhone estimates," he advised clients. "Thus far, it appears as though iPhone units in Europe are not exceeding the carriers' expectations; however, the carriers' estimates are meaningfully higher than our initial estimate of 250,000 in Europe."

Also, Munster said that Verizon's announcement this week that it will open its network up to "any application on any device" in 2008 will have "virtually no impact" on Apple's exclusive deal with AT&T and its revenue sharing agreement given that Verizon's network is CDMA and the iPhone only operates on GSM networks.

Long term, however, the move makes it easier for Google's Android platform to proliferate; as such it may indirectly impact the iPhone, but at this point the impact of Android on the iPhone is difficult to predict, the analyst told clients.

"The Verizon announcement coincides with Google's Android plans and the formation of the Open Handset Alliance, OHA, of which Verizon is a member," he wrote. "While it is too early to tell, this could be the beginning of a new chapter in the wireless market. Microsoft has taken its traditional software-centric approach offering Windows Mobile to any device maker wishing to partner with Microsoft, [while] Apple has opted for a closed ecosystem in which it controls the entire experience (hardware, software, phone activation, etc.), and Google has invested in an open sourced platform with Verizon as the open carrier."

Nevertheless, Munster said it will be interesting to see what wireless users come to expect over the next several years with those three major players competing for customer support.

"If consumer demand shifts toward an open system based on choice, then Apple's closed agreement with AT&T could become a limiting issue," he added. "However, we believe customers also appreciate and need simplicity. Apple and AT&T's closed system enables a user to buy the phone activate and load it with media in a few easy steps, which is made possible by the closed nature of the iPhone ecosystem."

The Piper Jaffray analyst maintained his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple.