$bbtitle
Apple Stock: 140.02 ( -2.81 )
RSS RSS Twitter Twitter
Search:
AppleInsider.com Archives News Bytes Reviews Anonymous Mailer Submit Story AppleInsider Forums Mac Prices Polls Advertise on AppleInsider Contact AppleInsider
Save up to $250 on new MacBook Pros and up to $180 on new iMacs: Mac Pricing Guide updated July 3rd (Find the best prices on Macs).
Friday, March 2, 2007

Mac install base estimated at 22 million pre-Leopard

By Slash Lane

Published: 12:20 PM EST

Apple Inc.'s install base of Mac OS X users will be approximately 22 million strong come the end of March, ahead of the company's next-generation Leopard operating system release, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities.

The figure is up by 6 million users since the Mac maker unwrapped its last major revision to the Mac operating system, Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger, back in June of 2005, analyst Keith Bachman told clients in research distributed earlier this week.

According to Bachman, major operating system releases are amongst the most lucrative for the Cupertino-based company, with gross margins that range upwards of 90 percent.

"At the time of product launch, Apple capitalizes the cost of software development and amortizes such cost over three years, meaning the Apple’s profit margins are very high at the time of product launch," he explained.

The securities analyst is forecasting the combined release of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard and associated iLife '07 digital lifestyle suite to generate approximately $200 million in incremental revenue for Apple, compared to the $135 million drawn from Tiger.

"We believe that Apple will sell approximately $185 million of Leopard in the June and Sept quarters, which we assume will be biased to the June quarter, depending on the release date," he wrote. "We believe that Leopard will sell for around $129."

Bachman estimates the resulting impact of Leopard to generate $0.07 to $0.09 per share to Apple's combined June and September quarters. "Based on Leopard alone, we see upside tension to Street estimates for the June and Sept quarters," he wrote.

As a direct result of the new software releases, the analyst is projecting Apple's software segment to grow by approximately $115 million quarterly in the June quarter to $450 million, representing 45 percent yearly growth. The firm's September quarter should subsequently yield about 15 percent yearly growth to $360 million, he added.

For Apple's current March quarter, Bachman is forecasting earnings of $0.56 compared to Street consensus estimates of $0.61. For the June quarter, he's modeling earnings of about $0.75 compared to the the Street's $0.68.

"Our guess is that we are more bullish on the June quarter due to our expectations on Leopard," he told clients, noting that uncertainties regarding Leopard's release date make precise predictions more of a challenge. "Trying to disaggregate the impact of any one item from Street estimates is difficult at best."

The analyst maintained a Buy rating on shares of Apple with a 12-month price target of $107.

Filed under : Investor 9 Comments ] 
Story topics: Keith Bachman, Banc of America   Print ] [ Story Link ] 


(13") $1,094.00 (15") $1,579.00 (15") $2,089.00
(13") $1,394.00 (15") $1,799.00 (17") $2,249.00
See more prices in AppleInsider's Mac Price Guide
Mac Poker players can play Full Tilt Poker for Mac and get 100% to $600 free with bonus code MP600, courtesy of Online Poker Mac
AppleInsider Features
Hot Forum Topics

Recent Articles
Countering rumor says Apple and NVIDIA "doing just fine"
Breaking: shot fired, one wounded at Virginia-based Apple Store
First iPhone 3GS jailbreaking tool available for download
iPhone 3GS marked AT&T's "best-ever sales day"
iPhone overheating problems could see aid from new patent
Apple working to fix unreleased iPhone SMS exploit
Pesky Psystar to emerge from Chapter 11 with new Mac offering
Apple looks towards fingerprint-based multi-touch controls
Apple developing "active packaging" for iPods and iPhones
Apple may drop NVIDIA chips in Macs following contract fight
Apple covering all the bases with Mac OS X 10.5.8 betas
University of Florida's PharmD program to require iPod touch
Apple's Mac shipments rebounding sharply in recent weeks
iPhone Software 3.1 to deliver new video and Voice Control features
Apple posts iPhone OS 3.1 beta, SDK with new video extensions
White iPhone 3GS units discoloring from excessive heat
Maine's expanded MacBook program the 'largest of its kind'
Mozilla releases faster, safer, smarter version of Firefox browser
Dell working on pocket-sized Internet gadget
MacBook Air firmware updated to support replacement batteries
Apple sees brief iPhone 3GS shortages; NVIDIA intros CS4 plugins
Steve Jobs returns to work at Apple
Apple, other phone makers agree on standard charger for Europe
Apple posts new Snow Leopard, 10.5.8 seeds
iPhone marketing head goes to VC firm; iTunes breaks records after Jackson death
Briefly: more affordable iMacs from Apple expected by fall
Apple's latest high-end MacBook Air slower than predecessor
Apple's profit margin on Mac minis slimmer than usual
Apple ups stake in iPhone graphics chip designer
Windows 7 priced below Vista, to allow upgrades from XP
Mossberg: New MacBook Pro has best battery life "ever tested"
Apple sued over 'false' iTunes gift card promises
Proof-of-concept ports Leopard's icon stacks to iPhone (video)
iPhone 3GS spurs 400% increase in mobile video uploads to YouTube
Tidbit: Apple naming Leopard point release after ancient gods
Upgrade fee sees few iPod touch users updating to 3.0 software
Apple exploring wireless system for quantifying the unquantifiable
Bogged down AT&T 3G to clear in months; Buffett criticizes Jobs
Apple updates Apple TV, Remote app to allow multi-touch control [u]
Apple undersells, over-delivers on iPhone 3GS speed - report

AppleInsider Market Place

Sell your Laptop - working or not. Free shipping.: Get an instant online quote and sell your laptop today !

Believe in Office: Save Up To 25% on Office 2004 For Mac. Visit Our Site for Details!

IBackup - SMB Online Backup: IBackup is the preferred online storage and backup service of choice for SMBs for its ease of use, security and value. Offers automated backup and restore, file selection and securiy.

Download free software - everyday updated freeware files

 
Advertisements








AppleInsider RSS Feed
AppleInsider © 1997-2008
Please review our Privacy Policy.
Written/Edited/Compiled by the AppleInsider Staff.