Goldman: iPhone to drive 'next big growth phase' for Apple
Following a recent buying intention survey, investment bank Goldman Sach said it is increasingly confident in its estimates that Apple will sell more than 14 million iPhones through the 2008 holiday shopping season.
In the US, 71 percent of respondents indicated interest in a potential Apple mobile phone, analyst David Bailey told clients, noting that the survey took place before the iPhone was unveiled in January.
Overall, Apple ranked as the No. 4 most desired handset brand in the US — again, the results coming before the formal demonstration of iPhone, which broadly exceeded expectations.
"Some of the concerns about the unwillingness of consumers to switch carriers to get the handset they want seem misplaced, with 30 percent of UK respondents and 15 percent in the US suggesting that they would switch," Bailey wrote.
He said the results offer increased confidence that Apple will meet his previous sales estimates of at least 4 million units in 2007 and 10.5 million in 2008.
In his analysis, Bailey assumed 25 percent video iPod cannibalization in 2007 and 50 percent in 2008, concluding that iPhone alone could add an incremental 4 to 5 percent to Appleâs revenue growth in those two years.
"We think that iPhone starts the next big growth phase for Apple," he wrote, "making it a core holding, and believe that the stock should be bought on dips prior to the productâs launch in June."
48 Comments
I disagree that the iPhone will cut into iPod sales that much... I still plan on getting a big honkin' iPod for my music and an iPhone for my phone when glitches are ironed out and they open it to developers a little bit... At least the widgets.
I wonder what the query basis of the survey was?
I disagree that the iPhone will cut into iPod sales that much... I still plan on getting a big honkin' iPod for my music and an iPhone for my phone when glitches are ironed out and they open it to developers a little bit... At least the widgets.
I don't think cannibalization is a valid concern anyway. A business has to obsolete their own products before someone else does. A business that rests on its laurels is a danger to itself.
I think there's always going to be some market for a dedicated product, but the question is how soon the integrated device is broadly preferred over a dedicated one simply on convenience, weight and so on.
A phone... an e-mail communications device... a cheese grater... THESE ARE NOT THREE SEPARATE DEVICES!
But seriously, if it weren't for at&t's service requirement, I'd certainly want an iPhone for myself. I'll wait it out with my new Samsung... for now. If a new, very cool iPod with multi-touch were introduced, however, I'd buy one tomorrow.
With the tiny hard drive size of the iPhone compared to that of a video iPod, I dont see very much cannibalization here. The iPhone does not fill my video iPod requirements and the iPod video does not fill my phone requirements. I would need both.
I am very confused as to why analysts feel there will be so much cannibalism...
How does 8gigs qualify as a "video iPod?"
There does seem to be a greater willingness here in the UK to swap mobile supplier than in the US and this survey seems to confirm that. Is there any obvious reason why there is less willingness in the US? Why wouldn't people swap to get the right phone?
Is it the geographical coverage of certain suppliers that just wins out in some areas? Or is there more to it?