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Apple's Titanic?
Any generic movie has a big opening to keep you interested, then a lull while
the plot evolves, then things get interesting after a little bit. Then the 'hero'
gets into a little bit of trouble and eventually there is some kind of ultimate showdown.
More often than less, the hero gets beaten until the last second when it's do or
die, and the hero comes back to beat the crap out of the opponent. Looking at Apple's
current state, I see Rhapsody as that final last ditch attempt to kill the aliens
while boxing the last round and getting out before the mines all go off. The evil
empire is on Apple's ass this time and nothing can save them except this last ditch
weapon which has been misunderstood
by many.
Now I'll draw myself away from the movie parallel. Apple is losing marketshare...badly.
I don't care what place they rank in January sales, everywhere I look the mac is
getting squeezed out of places. On my own very campus the mac support consists of
one person...me!
That's right, I support the entire Macintosh population at a very healthy-sized state
college which consists of exactly 51 people who own a macintosh and connect to the
university's network (there's a few who don't connect, but most do). When I look
at similar things happening all over the country and then look where I am and see
the same thing and see the sheer blinding ignorance with which it is happening (i.e.
there can only be one platform per college or else we are doomed to have more people
to support them - Unix doesn't get counted here because it's special), I can't help
but bend to the hype of Apple's demise...that is, unless I think about Rhapsody.
First more bad news before the good. Here's a few scenarios of why Rhapsody is make
or break for Apple....
Lets assume first that Rhapsody never makes it to final version (which just isn't
going to happen unless Cupertino gets blown up). This possibility is so dumb that
I don't really have to explain it, do I? What with Copland getting axed and ye old
MacOS7.1 (er, I mean 8.1) stretching a bit into old age, Apple will just have no
where to go. They have already been allowed to kill off an OS (2 if you count the
demise of Newton) and they don't get any more without some taking serious flak. Sure,
the good people at Apple could scrap something else up...but what could they possibly
scrap up so good to keep them alive? They see the MacOS's limits (or demise if you
like that word), and while it won't be a sharp break from MacOS to Rhapsody, there
will be a 'transition'. With no Rhapsody, no Copland, no Newton, and a dwindling
marketshare, I simply cannot see how Apple would survive short of an immense speed
increase in the PowerPC chip, which would simply buy them more time, if even....
Okay, now assume that Rhapsody makes it to the public. It is distributed for both
Intel and PowerPC on time (give or take a month). The Blue Box works, the Yellow
Box for MacOS gets pulled off, the Yellow Box for Windows95/96 (er 97...98 I guess)
is all it's supposed to be, and some nice 3rd party makes a spiffy Red Box-ish thing
to let your favorite MS OS run alongside Rhapsody. For whatever reason, let's assume
that this stuff just all sucks. The Yellow Box for Windows is given less attention
than an OS/2 datebook program, Rhapsody for Intel goes nowhere fast and is too complicated
for people. Rhapsody for PowerPC is way too resource-hungry and Yellow Box for MacOS
is horrendously slow and useless without programs. In short, Rhapsody bites it faster
than a 5300 shipped low-priority ground with no foam peanuts in the box. Where does
Apple go? Can they survive on MacOS alone? Look at the improvements from 7.1 to 8.1,
sure it does some cool tricks and has some nice new things, but can they milk an
OS that has roots back to when a monochrome display about the size of your palm was
all the rage? Would you, or anyone else who has been hearing a buzz about Rhapsody,
be able to stand by a company that just can't seem to get anything done anymore?
Could you honestly say that there was a future in a company who has completely botched
not one, but two new technologies that were touted to be revolutionary?
I don't think you could. Furthermore, I don't think anyone paying attention and making
an honest choice would be able to. Face the facts, yes the MacOS rules and may be
the best choice for what you are doing, but look around and weigh all the facts.
I don't hesitate to say that had Apple axed Rhapsody 2 months ago I would be writing
this on my old 7100 and riding out the time until they died (were bought) to get
an Intel box...knowing that they were truly in their death throws. Have you all used
Windows95 in the past 6 months for more than an hour? I tend to use it about once
a week or so helping someone out with something or other and while it sucks in comparison
to the MacOS, by itself it isn't hard to deal with. The fact is that, honestly, Microsoft
has done a decent job of knocking off the MacOS. The difference now is somewhere
between using a 14" display fixed at 640X480 in thousands and a 17" multiresolution
in millions. MacOS has simply not evolved as fast as Windows has, even though we
are still out in front based on OS alone.
The reason that I get why someone won't switch to a Mac most of the time is simply
because it isn't worth their time or effort to go out and get one or deal with new
software or getting Mac versions of their software. For most of the web-junkie/gamer/report-typing
public, this is just simply a fact, in the end it isn't worth it to them to switch
just so they can do things a bit easier, save a little time and money, or get a processor
that beats what they have now. Ease of use? Well, they're not annoyed with what they
are using now, why get something easier? More bang for the buck? Well, they don't
need either 266 G3 models nor 300P2 models, so twice as fast isn't really all it's
cracked up to be. Look at the lower range and you see that the the low-end Mac market
still hasn't made its big push yet. Wasted time? Most are out to waste time on the
web or in a game anyway...in fact many of you are doing that right now (but that's
okay). Business solution? Get serious, IT/IS won't stand for a Mac migration (I don't
blame them) and when you factor in the sheer cost of switching over to a new OS (and
a new hardware base), it looks less and less attractive. These are how most PC users
see things...it's not pro-Mac, but that doesn't make it any less right. Some people
just don't need a computer better than what they already have. Add the fact that
Apple's stock price (while rising recently) has been mostly down and as a company
they are still caught in a downward spiral as far as most publications are concerned,
and it makes it very easy to ignore them as a viable solution. Simply put, everyone
has Windows95, it does all they need it to, and Microsoft doesn't look doomed.
Now I may take flak for this, but simply put, this is the Reality. I know all the
reasons to buy a Mac (and I just got a new one so I believe at least 67% of those
reasons), but I have also tried out Windows 3.1 and 95 along with Solaris, Be, and
MkLinux, and you know what? I can live with any of the above after about a week of
adjusting and complaining (I can even live with a "command line only" environment
if it has a good graphical web browser, IRC, C++ and Java, and a few games). As fanatical
as some of you are, deep down I think you are all smart enough to realize that mourning
about the death of Apple (after the fact, if they do, mind you) and sticking with
OS8.5/9 for years to come to the exclusion of all else, would just be dumb if you
have any intention of going into the field of computing or keeping up with new technology
(don't get me wrong, if Apple dies tomorrow, I'd use OS8.1 for at least a month or
two before switching to another primary OS, but I would switch eventually).
On the flipside (the good stuff)...I probably have one of the most...'bombastic'
visions of Apple's future for someone who has never passed through a Jobs Reality
Distortion Field (or at least...I..don't..remember..passing..through..one). I personally
think that Apple will not only survive and ship Rhapsody, but will use it to deliver
that final blow and gain the upper hand over the evil sea creature terrorizing the
ship and mad scientists planning to take over the world. Looking at the feature list
for Rhapsody makes me drool. Hearing people talk about the cross-platform capabilities
makes me go on Hotline and look for toast images of the Rhapsody CDs. Seeing screenshots
and movies of Rhapsody in action along with believing it to be the most important
software to make or break Apple is almost enough to get me to buy a CD burner (but
then I remember how much my computer cost and how much tuition is and how hard I
work at two jobs). Frankly, I think this thing will rock the computing world. After
looking at just about everything I can get my hands on about Rhapsody (short of installing
it myself), I can't see anything that can stop this from being successful short of
forces within Apple or some kind of terrorist attack (or a major buyout worth billions
of dollars...but I would think that a buyout would be because of Rhapsody's promises,
not to stop Rhapsody's development).
I truly think that Rhapsody will kick too much ass to fail and that Apple will be
reborn (again) with this. Rhapsody for Intel can take off because you don't have
to stick your head out and get hardware that doesn't run Windows software and you
can run your old stuff alongside Rhapsody things (I am assuming that if Apple doesn't
ship a 'Red Box', that another 3rd party will pick up the slack and ship one in a
matter of months). Rhapsody for PowerPC can work because anyone who runs MacOS on
a supported machine will probably want the cool new things that Rhapsody offers and
Mac developers can open up their kick ass creations
to the Windows world via the freely-distributable Yellow Box for Windows. Mac users
who can't have the Yellow Box on their computer will get a squeeze they won't like,
but those who have the Yellow Box installed will have more to choose for. Windows
developers can use Rhapsody for Intel to distribute their programs to their Windows
base of users (and include the Yellow Box with their program), plus get to distribute
over to MacOS users with the Yellow Box, and also get to use some spiffy new Yellow
Box APIs to boot...very cool stuff. On top of this, after a Red Box is shipped (and
it will be shipped, even if not by Apple), they won't even need to go over to Windows
to run their old stuff.
One last minor point, Apple people won't be killed off if Apple dies. The company
will either be bought wholesale or split up and distributed in chunks, but I seriously
doubt that we will be thrust back into a time when all those brains at Apple were
doing something not so impactful. Hell, look at both Mr. Jobs and Mr. Gassée,
who went on to create 2 powerful operating systems after being with Apple. Look at
all the really cool things Apple has done (and yes, they axed a lot of cool stuff,
too). Look at how long they have survived in spite of marketshare. That kind of environment
is a rare one and I would expect that if Apple Computer Inc. is bought out (by whoever)
that the buyer will see the value of that environment and keep it whole and still
pumping out cool things...even though it would never be the same (but has Apple ever
remained the same?) and would probably be based around Intel chips rather than PowerPC
ones...unless you want some kind of MS-buys-Apple-to-migrate-to-PPC-chips-and-really-mess-up-Intel
conspiracy...nah.
-John F. Gilbreth
JGilbreth@aol.com
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